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Core themes

Core Theme 1:     Predictability of key oceanic and atmospheric quantities related to the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean surface state

Lead: Johann Jungclaus (MPG)

Co-lead: Marie-Noelle Houssais (UPMC)

Climate forecasts are inevitably subject to uncertainty or errors of various types. Uncertainties may arise from the specification of initial conditions and from parameter uncertainties generic to the models themselves. These errors can be explored using ensemble forecasts, as provided by the state-of-the-art CMIP5 multi-model decadal prediction experiments. In CT1 we will analyze these experiments and also perform process-oriented modeling studies ourselves. The main aim is to estimate the uncertainties of the predictions and to relay those to the physical relevant processes in the atmosphere and ocean with focus on the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean.

CT1 focuses on key problems and uncertainties in climate forecasts and the analysis will lead to an improvement of the reliability and accuracy of climate predictions.

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Key deliverables

Core Theme 2: Monitoring of North Atlantic parameters

Lead: Johannes Karstensen (GEOMAR)

Co-lead: Karin Margretha H. Larsen (Havstovan)

The North Atlantic by far the most important source for climate variability on time scales beyond interannual. Consequently the skill of forecasts depends critically on the knowledge of the regional ocean surface properties. The observational network in the North Atlantic, developed during the past decades through substantial support by the European Union, provides time series of ocean quantities like heat and freshwater fluxes, but also of water mass formation and transformation rates that are being used both for initializing and for quality control of models capable of forecasting future climate development. In CT2 these data will be used to compare integrates measures, like freshwater budgets, with those derived from model output and thus quantify the uncertainties inherent in the model forecasts.

Using integral field campaigns CT2 focuses on uncertainties in climate forecasts and the analysis will lead to more robust climate information by quantifying the reliability of climate predictions.

Workpackages in this core theme

Key deliverables

Core Theme 3: Initialization of prediction systems with ocean observations

Lead: Steffen Olsen (DMI)

Co-lead: Mojib Latif (GEOMAR)

The skill of any dynamical forecast depends critically on the quality of the initial conditions. For climate forecasts these are derived from observations in the ocean and atmosphere that are assimilated in either stand-alone models or in coupled models, as in the EU FP7 THOR adjoint assimilation system. Another critical point is the nature of the observations and their distribution in time and space. Rather than being able to freely choose the best data for the initialization, their use is constrained by there availability. In this Core Theme we will explore the impact of the constraints by working in an ideal model world allowing a free choice of parameters and locations. We will also construct a comprehensive data base for the Arctic Ocean including Ice Surface Temperatures and explore there impact on the quality of the forecasts.

CT3 focuses on uncertainties in climate forecasts and the analysis will lead to more robust climate information by improving the reliability and accuracy of climate predictions.

Workpackages in this core theme

Key deliverables

Core Theme 4: Impact on the oceanic ecosystem and urban societies

Lead: Mark Payne (DTU AQUA)

Co-lead: Koen De Ridder (VITO)

Changes and variability of the global climate and that of the North Atlantic/European sector may be associated with strong impacts on society and key economic sectors. Physical processes in the ocean play a crucial role in the dynamics of the species and ecosystems that are dependent on the marine environment, and therefore impact the societies that are dependent upon these resources. In particular urban agglomerations, land are vulnerable to climate extremes such as heat waves and flooding. In this core project we will quantify the effects of climate variations on these two environments, marine and urban, by using the forecasts provided by the CMIP5 multi-model-experiments and appropriately downscaled regional or local models.

CT4 focuses on environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change and accesses the vulnerability of marine ecosystems and urban societies.

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Key deliverables

Core Theme 5: Dissemination of NACLIM and coordination across EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS

Lead:Detlef Quadfasel (UHAM)

Co-lead: Bart Thomas (GIM)

Core theme 5 incorporates the scientific coordination (outlined in detail in B.2.1), the coordination across the projects EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS, and the dissemination of the results through several climate service groups.

We have chosen this approach in order to achieve optimal exploitation of the key results obtained within the project and to facilitate interaction with and feedbacks from the respective end-users, may they be in science, society, politics or industry, or in other consortia.

Apart from the management of the project CT5 focuses on:

Workpackages in this core theme

Key deliverables

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